BROKERS’ NOTES: Buy Naspers, sell Thungela

We’d be buying Naspers, specifically, because it is trading at a deeper discount to the underlying portfolio than Prosus. Management were waiting for Reserve Bank approval so they couldn’t implement the buybacks fairly, but they kept on buying Prosus shares, so they are now catching up with Naspers. The fact that they’re not buying more Naspers shares than Prosus shares is another reason to buy Naspers. They’re buying about $100m of Naspers shares a week compared to $200m of Prosus.

If you look at the global environment around energy prices, there’s definitely some pushback from governments. US President Joe Biden is talking about a windfall tax on energy companies, so there is a change in the narrative. If you look at Thungela’s current share price, it’s discounting the fact that Richards Bay coal prices will stay at these elevated levels. Prices are already down 40% in two months, so that’s pretty negative and I think the momentum is not going to go away.

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