A study published on Friday, led by authors from the National Blood Service, shows that a large percentage of the population has likely already been infected with SARS-CoV-2 and that there are striking differences in prevalence between blacks and whites.
Extrapolating their results to the whole population, the researchers estimated that 63% of people in Eastern Cape have been infected since the epidemic started, 32% in Northern Cape, 46% in Free State and 52% in KwaZulu-Natal. This is massively more than the clinically confirmed case rates of between 2% and 3% in these four provinces.
“Our study demonstrates substantial differences in dissemination of SARS-CoV-2 infection between different race groups, most likely explained by historically based differences in socio-economic status and housing conditions,” the researchers write. But perhaps the key question is this: are we approaching the herd immunity threshold so that we can return to the way we lived before lockdown? It’s hard to be sure but probably not yet. There is still room for a third wave .