Barclays warns of hit to currency, eurozone GDP if Russia turns off gas taps

Worries are mounting in Europe that Moscow could sharply reduce the amount of gas it supplies or stop it altogether as tensions rise and sanctions intensify over its assault on Ukraine.

“If Russia closes its gas taps to Europe, we expect EUR/USD to fall below parity,” Barclays said in a note on the rising tensions.“Our economists estimate that a total loss of Russian supplies, combined with rationing of the remainder, could dent euro area GDP by more than 5 percentage points over one year.”

The EU is grappling with Russia’s demand that countries start paying for their gas in roubles rather than euros or dollars, as they traditionally have.

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