Projections that assume the Global North will continue to over-emit help perpetuate inequalities and violate principles of equity, warn scientists.
She adds that even in scenarios with marginally better outcomes for Africa, the projected incomes are still far below levels that would be required to meet the Sustainable Development Goals even as late as 2050. Youba Sokona, the former vice chair of the IPCC suggests that such modelling approaches"perpetuate a cycle of poverty and under-development", hindering progress towards achieving sustainable development goals and improving the well-being of populations in countries in the Global South.
One effect of scenarios that project continued inequalities is that they assume the Global North will continue high carbon emissions despite the fact that many developed countries havetheir fair share of the global carbon budget. Policies for reducing emissions based on these models therefore put the burden on developing countries to keep their emissions low to compensate for rich countries' excess appropriation.
A major equity-based critique of IAMs is that they prioritise the lowest-cost solutions which end up placing the burden of mitigation on poorer countries. This is because the costs of setting up a solar plant or undertaking afforestation in India or some African countries, for instance, are typically lower than in the US or European Union.
"The new framework should prioritise open access to data, methodologies, and assumptions, allowing for scrutiny and validation by the broader scientific community and stakeholders," adds Sokona.
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