Africa: China vs the West - a Contest That Will Hurt Africa's Future

Africa's development depends on global rapprochement and overcoming its own lowest-common-denominator politics.confirms that China will overtake the United States as the most powerful country in the world by mid-century. The West, comprising the US and the European Union , cannot constrain China's momentum towards great power status.

Nothing is pre-ordained, and numerous unlikely but high-impact changes could disrupt this trend. The first is a great power implosion in the US, China or the EU. In the EU's case, the reverse could also occur, with an expansion to include Turkey and a democratic Russia. Ironically, the greatest threat to China's ongoing rise is its potential democratisation. In all other countries except the oil-rich Middle East, rising incomes unlocked a push for individual achievement and, eventually, democratisation. Such change would probably disrupt China's current growth trajectory. That would negatively affect Africa, given China's importance as a trading partner, investor, and infrastructure builder.

And although the war in Ukraine has strengthened relations in the EU and between the US and EU, rising energy prices and a likely recession will strain EU unity. Meanwhile, the Ukraine conflict and the fear of China's growing influence are causing significant collateral damage. The West must differentiate between China and Russia and resist simplistic narratives that pit a benevolent West against bad China associated with evil Russia in Africa.

A determined effort is needed to rebuild relations between the West and China defined by mutual respect and acknowledgement of the differences in approaches to development and governance.

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