By-elections are a reflection of public opinion at a specific given time. They are indicators rather than a definitive picture. But there are some take-aways from the past year’s by-elections that should set alarm bells ringing for political parties ahead of the 8 May 2019 elections.
Within this snapshot, voter turn-out is an important factor. While voter turn-out in by-elections is traditionally significantly lower than even local government elections, never mind national elections that reach into the 70 percentages, it remains nevertheless a weather vane of voters’ sentiments. And while there can not be a direct extrapolation from by-elections to national and provincial polls, the ANC has cause to be concerned, even as its top officials are criss-crossing South Africa to directly interact with voters. It’s getting voters to the polls on election day that counts – as the ANC’s loss of Johannesburg, Tshwane and Nelson Mandela Bay in the 2016 municipal poll showed.
In KwaZulu-Natal, the IFP lost to the ANC four of the various of the past year’s by-elections, but gained at least one seat off the ANC at Mtubatuba in the May 2018 by-election. The outcome of the 27 March 2019 by-election at AbaQulusi was tight, with a one percentage point difference. The ANC won with 44%, up from 32% support in the 2016 local government election, as the IFP saw its 52% support drop to 43%.
The ANC’s previous gains in by-electoral support that reduced the DA as happened in Saldanha and Oudtshoorn by-elections of May 2018, is evaporating. Earlier this week one Western Cape ANC insider said the party had hit the campaign trail hard – “We hope we have done enough,” was how it was put – in what turned out to be a replay of the January 2019 by-election where the ANC failed to clinch its targets even though several activists’ festive season leave was cancelled.
But it appears that religion-based parties may well be an alternative for voters not keen to cast their ballots for the big three, the ANC, DA and EFF.
Source: Entertainment Trends (entertainmenttrends.net)
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