We currently see the end result for the ANC nationally at 56% on 69% turnout, however with very low confidence given the low number of votes counted. We see the ANC in Gauteng at 49.6% but it could still get a majority of seats just.
Calling an election from live, partial, results is a serious challenge in South Africa at the best of times. But given how contested these 2019 elections we wanted to give some flavour of how the results are shaping up and so cutting through the hype that can take over social media and parts of the media when individual results are seen.Our model tries to look at how results that come out differ from 2014 elections and from signals sent by the 2016 elections and subsequent recent by-elections.
The first batch of results have now come in and we present the results below. There are enough results to make a prediction but with a wide margin of error here.Our tracking model is currently showing with 6.26% of the votes counted the ANC nationally at 56%, losing 24 seats. Note this is an adjusted score based on the underlying trends in the data whilst the raw live results are actually are printing at 52%.
For Gauteng our estimates so far, though only with a small 3.1% of the projected votes available, we see the ANC only getting 49.6% of the vote but that it can still get a majority of seats given the distribution of smaller parties.Source: Daily Maverick, IEC
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