They missed the playoffs in 2023, sitting out October for the first time since 2016, and came dangerously close to ending a now 31-year streak without a losing season. Manager Aaron Boone and general manager Brian Cashman could both find their seats hotter by season's end, as fans used to cheering for World Series contenders might instead be clamoring for their heads on talk radio if the team flails to another mediocre season.
Of course, a big change is that Judge will likely move down in the order, with Soto hitting in the 2-hole and Judge batting third. Early in spring training, manager Aaron Boone joked that Judge has long been lobbying to move into a better RBI slot."That's been going on about six years now," Boone laughed.
Overall, Yankees first basemen created about 72 runs. In 2022, with Rizzo playing 130 games and hitting .224/.338/.480 with 32 home runs, Yankees first basemen created 95 runs . Rizzo is 34, so there's no guarantee he'll reach that same level of production, but he has been tearing it up in spring training and looks great. Just giving him his 2022 numbers -- which seems reasonable -- is a big help to this lineup.
Still, you would expect general improvement from a 23-year-old with Volpe's skill set. The various projection systems aren't all that optimistic, with ZiPS forecasting only an eight-run improvement. Even the 90th percentile PECOTA projection has Volpe hitting just .219/.301/.399.. improved last season. He was also 22 in his rookie season in 2022 and created about 74 runs -- improving to 101 last season .
We're going for a best-case scenario, but we won't go wild here, so let's add a few more runs to that 10-run upgrade.As with Rizzo, the difficulty in being a 34-year-old hitter also applies to Stanton -- except he's already trending in the wrong direction and was a below-average hitter in 2023.
With the worst-case offense and using that 2023 figure as a model for the staff, we're left with a run differential of minus-5 runs ... and 80 wins., weren't terrible in 2023, as they allowed just 39 more runs than the league-leading Mariners and Twins. If the Yankees repeat that with their 880 runs scored, that gets them to 99 wins. A league-average staff in 2023 allowed 741 runs -- which puts our best-case scenario team at 95 wins.
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