Why this might be the best Arsenal team you've ever seen

Ryan O'Hanlon is a staff writer for ESPN.com. He's also the author of"Net Gains: Inside the Beautiful Game's Analytics Revolution."

Despite going undefeated, the Invincibles didn't win as many games as you might expect. The Premier League record for wins was set and then matched, three seasons in a row: Manchester City won 32 games in 2017-18, then did it again in 2018-19 and then Liverpool did it in 2019-20. Since the Premier League was formed in 1992, 23 different teams have won more matches than the Invincibles did.

A similar fate could be lurking ahead for Arsenal this season. On a per-90-minute basis, Mikel Arteta's team is outscoring opponents by 1.6 goals. Over a full season, that would put them 10th all time in the Premier League, and yet they still have only about a 30% chance of winning the league, based on most projection systems and the betting markets.

Arsenal's Invincibles season was incredible not just for how the Gunners didn't lose, but because of how quickly they were overtaken by bigger-spending rivals. It's not like Chelsea were funding their spending with player sales, either. The club's net spend -- transfer fees paid, minus transfer fees received -- was minus-€331.9 million. The next biggest loss was Tottenham's €64 million.

So, this is the environment in which Arsenal are doing this. What are they doing exactly? Well, since Guardiola took over Manchester City, the club have produced the best expected-goal differential in the Premier League -- in every season. On balance, City have created a bigger margin of chances than every team in the league, year after year. Conversion rates in front of goal, on both ends, have occasionally prevented them from winning.

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