Democrats cannot afford to fritter away their lead. Photo-Illustration: Megan Paetzhold. Photos: Getty Images With eight days left before November 3, any account of the trajectory of the presidential contest that isn’t just pro-Trump spin would have to concede that the president is still trailing Biden nationally and in the key battleground states with time running out and no particular reason to think Trump has momentum on his side, unless you really put a lot of stock in boat parades.
The size of Biden’s lead affects down-ballot contests With a President Biden really needing a Democratic Senate, and Democrats needing a net gain of four seats outside Alabama, where they are very likely to lose an incumbent, there really isn’t much of a margin for error.
A shrinking Biden lead could be vulnerable to polling errors Memories of how far off national polls were in 2016 are often faulty; according to FiveThirtyEight’s analysis, national polls missed by an average of 3.1 percent. State polling error was a more significant — and ultimately more important — 5.2 percent. Biden’s current lead is less than 5.2 percent in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.
Because Florida’s voting rules permit mail ballots to be counted well in advance of Election Day, an election night call here is likely.This means avoiding a scenario in which Trump declares himself winner even as enormous numbers of mail ballots remain outstanding in key states. Since Trump has no plausible path without Florida, it would probably mean a winner is called on election night.
Polls do not determine elections. Voters do.
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