On Tuesday morning, Floridians knew a storm was coming but not how strong it would be. As of 5 a.m., Michael was a strong Category 1 hurricane with a minimum pressure of 973 millibars, a measure of atmospheric pressure indicating that air is rising in the storm, pulling winds toward its center. The official forecast took the storm up to mid-Category 3 at landfall. But 24 hours later, Michael was already far stronger: It now had 140 mph winds and a pressure falling sharply.
I see this all of the time with people at ballparks during a lightning storm or living in floodplains without flood insurance.This brings me back to extreme heat. Virtually every credible report published on climate change indicates that extreme heat will continue to be a problem. The graphic above indicates trends in the number of days with a heat index above 90 degrees F from 1979 to 2018. Climate projections expect these trends to accelerate. This means that people, organizations, and our infrastructure will need to adapt.
I am sure some readers are saying, “Whatever, Dr. Shepherd . I grew up playing recreation sports in the heat and I survived.” To me, that is similar to the old school exaggerated stories about “walking to school uphill both ways.” It is romanticization of the past. We live in a new climate normal, and we better adapt quickly.National Climate Assessment Report
past events do not predict future outcomes
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