vote in November, unemployment will be below 6%,” declared Lars Christensen, a maverick economist, in May. Given that lockdowns had sent the unemployment rate soaring to 14.7% only the month before, it was a bold prediction. In June at least 14 of the Federal Reserve’s 17 interest-rate-setters forecast that quarterly unemployment at the end of the year would still be above 9%. Most other prognosticators were equally gloomy. They expected Americanto collapse in 2020 and recover relatively slowly.
He may be proven right. Over the summer the unemployment rate fell fast, to 8.4% in August. And economists have scrambled to upgrade their growth forecasts . On September 16th the, a rich-country think-tank, predicted that the American economy would shrink by 3.8% this year, rather than the 7.3% expected in June. The outlook was upgraded across the rich world, but nowhere by as much. America still faces a recession about half as deep again as the one it endured after the financial crisis.
The upgrades in America can be attributed to three factors. First, the spread of the coronavirus in the southern “sunbelt states”, which rode a wave of the epidemic in the summer, has slowed. Second, America’s economic stimulus, the world’s largest both in absolute terms and as a proportion of, has been potent.
Much could still go wrong. The virus could surge again, as it has in Europe. Many forecasters continue to assume, optimistically, that Congress will pass another stimulus package this year. Americans cannot run down their savings forever. And social-distancing requirements remain in place in much of the country. As a result some labour-market indicators still look dire. In August, even as the overall unemployment rate fell, roughly 3.
Canadians who lost their jobs have been receiving $2,000/month from the Federal government. There are also wage subsidies for some employers as well as rent subsidies - all at a great cost to the taxpayers.
Because the US treasury and Fed are directly buying up company stocks with taxpayer money? While US debt takes off like a SpaceX rocket, revenues continue to plunge like boringcompany tunnels. Only a matter of time...
The question is will we have to pay the fiddler for the stimulus spending dance or will an ascending economy cover the cost?
The unemployment income have not been seen or received in California since March. All you hear is excuses.
lol ... we’re ‘beating forecasts’ because we’ve decided more people can die so why not open up.
furlough Europe vacation Europeans generally have 5 weeks of paid vacation so no income loss from furloughs.
i’m going to find whoever wrote this and steal all of their money
False news
what the fuck is a cheque? we got checks of $1200. the money is gone. what more do you want from us? would you accept my flayed skin?
lol Americans saved what part of those modest stimulus checks?
no they didn’t fuck you I’m going to destroy your magazine
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