Why Experts Believe We Can Trust the Polls *This* Time

Older voters were Trump’s best age demographic in 2016. He won them by about 10 points or so. This time, Biden’s been leading among them by 12 points in some polls, though not in all of them. If this holds, Biden would have a chance to be the first Democrat since Al Gore to win senior voters. That’s real trouble for Trump if that materializes. He won’t have anywhere else to hide, given his deficits among so many other groups.

Relative to 2016, he does seem to be performing better among Black and Latino voters, specifically Black and Latino men. But it’s not like he’s winning. He’s going from, like, 5 percent to 8 or 9 percent among Black voters. And Latino voters, from 28 to 32 percent or something like that. I mean, he can clip a couple of the Democratic margins here and there, but his real base is still non-college-educated white voters.

Four years ago, Arizona was considered kind of a reach for the Clinton campaign. She could go for it so long as she had the rest locked down. Instead, she visited without having the rest locked down. That was a bit of a problem. But in polling averages in Arizona, Biden’s been up in just about every poll. It’s a combination of the electorate there becoming more Latino in its composition as well as some suburban decay for Trump, which you’re seeing everywhere.

I don’t think he’s giving up in Arizona. They were pulling ads from a lot of places around the conventions—this is partially related to howand are somehow having to tighten their belts a little bit. I think it’ll be back up on the air in Arizona because if they lose there, it really puts all the stress on holding Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin when they’re not in a great position in any of those states right now.

I’m so excited to vote BidenHarris2020 🇺🇸 The good thing is we know normal voting won’t occur. The Dems are being diligent thwarting the voter suppression and dirty play by repubs. It’s going to be a Biden landslide cause we are taking no chances. VoteBlueToSaveAmerica

Vegas odds

Encouraging 😂

Act like we’re 40 points behind. We need a landslide

The Dementia Candidate is no match for Trump. Just compare rallies, oh yeah Biden don't have rallies.

Bullsh1t. I will never trust the polls and media. The Trump mob rallies should have been shown so people could see the size of his cult following and the anger. The polls are clearly slanting to liberals in polling. I cried all night in 2016. Almost positive he'll win again

I remember 2016. We must assume that Joe is three points behind. VOTE EARLY!

Yeah, all the Trump signs, rallies and boat parades. I’m pumped for 2020. MAGA!

NAH!! Crooked Trump PAUS for polls !!! All rigged!!! POLLS ARE THE REAL FAKE NEWS !!!

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