Why a global manufacturing slump is a recurring threat

THE GLOBAL economy had an inauspicious start to 2019. Markets went into a tailspin and America’s government was locked in a seemingly interminable shutdown. But matters have not played out as dismally as they might have. The government in Washington is open again. America and China appear close to a trade deal which, although modest in its achievements, would nonetheless reflect a welcome easing of tension between the world’s two biggest economies.

It is tempting to blame President Donald Trump for the reversal. America has spent the past year ratcheting up its confrontation with China. The deceleration in manufacturing activity began around the time Mr Trump raised tariffs on Chinese washing machines and solar panels. It continued as America slapped tariffs first on steel imports and then on a range of Chinese goods, and as it restricted the involvement of Chinese technology firms in its economic affairs.

Once they had hauled the economy through the global financial crisis of 2007-08, on the back of massive stimulus, China’s leaders pivoted towards economic reform in 2015. They sought to wean the economy off credit, which had grown at mind-boggling rates in 2009-14. They also took steps to open up China’s financial markets. The measures turned out to be premature: as constraints on capital movement were loosened, money fled the country and stock prices crashed.

My business is being closed down by the Government on March 9th because I won't be able to meet the Universal Credit Minimum Floor Income Threshold. I would be happy to write an article for you about my experience. I am one of the first to hit this problem.

Wait till we are printing cheap simple goods instead of importing them.

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