Who's winning congressional redistricting: How we calculated our figures

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Projecting the partisan lean of 2022's new congressional districts takes a bit of history and a lot of math

once-a-decade redistricting.

How each state redraws its congressional districts will change the balance of power on Capitol Hill. We break down the new maps to tell youThen, we rebuild these precincts based on the new maps released by each state once they are enacted. In most cases, precincts fit neatly into one new district. When one precinct straddles two or more districts, though, we apportion out voters according to land area. It’s not perfect, but it’s the best option in these rare circumstances.

Once nearly all the U.S. precincts have been meted out into their new congressional districts, we sum them up, calculating how each soon-to-be district would have voted for president in 2020 — and how that compares with the set of political maps that preceded them. But political leanings don't tell the whole story. So POLITICO also analyzes each district's demographic profile, based on two key metrics we’ve identified as key fault lines in the next generation of American politics.

First is the racial makeup of districts. Given the United States’ history of gerrymandering and the populations such methods often target, knowing how people of color are represented in new districts is crucial to understanding Congress.

 

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