Who is winning the race for No 10 Downing Street?

poised for an election on December 12th. Boris Johnson, the prime minister, had long called for an early poll, and on October 29th won parliamentary support for one, at his fourth attempt.Mr Johnson says an election is needed to “get Brexit done”, after his pledge to leave the European Union by October 31st, “do or die”, was killed off by Parliament.

But one other reason for the Conservatives’ desire for an election, and Labour’s wariness of it, is plain from opinion polls that give the Tories a large advantage. Our poll tracker, which averages the findings of more than a dozen pollsters*, shows how the parties are faring. It will be kept updated throughout the campaign. However, it should be read with caution. It gives an indication of public sentiment, but does not forecast the distribution of seats.

The election is particularly hard to predict, for two reasons. First, Britain’s electoral landscape has changed markedly. The country has become polarised into Leave and Remain camps. And the old two-party system has fragmented into more of a four-party configuration; in addition to the Conservatives and Labour, the strongly pro-Remain Liberal Democrats and the avidly pro-Leave Brexit party both poll in double figures.

A second factor is that, under Britain’s first-past-the-post electoral system, voters are increasingly likely to vote tactically: switching parties to maximise support for the strongest Leave or Remain candidates.*The Economist’s poll-of-polls aggregates data from several firms using a statistical method called a generalised additive mixed model with smoothing.

However, it should be read with caution. It gives an indication of public sentiment, but does not forecast the distribution of seats.

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