What was Iran thinking? Maybe not what you think.

Israeli military spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari and his deputy Masha Michelson pose next to an Iranian ballistic missile that fell in Israel this weekend, during a media tour at the Julis military base near the southern Israeli city of Kiryat Malachi on Tuesday. Deciphering what the Iranian regime’s dramatic weekend air assault on Israel means is not as difficult as most observers are making it.

No one can deny that the image of hundreds of projectiles launched into the air was an impressive and terrifying sight. The fact that apparently not a single one hit a target of any strategic value, however, is telling. Despite its stated intention of destroying Israel, this was the first military offensive Tehran ever launched against the Jewish state, and it was thwarted with apparent ease.

Iran’s leaders, shaken by the killing of top military brass, felt they had to respond with a show of strength. Not doing so would signal impotence to Israel and Iran’s Arab adversaries, as well as a restive domestic population that is increasingly eager to see the end of the theocratic regime.Make no mistake, this doesn’t mean Iran is no longer a threat; but the threats it poses are not the ones we usually presume them to be.

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