While the U.S.-China dispute still has business leaders nervous about investing new capital, trade is not the only factor affecting the economic outlook. With the U.S. currently at record low unemployment and consumer spending still solid, the economy continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace.
"If the economy softens and people have less ability to service debt, the Fed will lower rates further," said Graybill, whose firm invests three quarters of its $2.9 billion in assets under management in fixed income. The current Fed Funds rate is 1.5% to 1.75%. After bottoming below 1.5% in early September, the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond has risen to 1.76%.Instead he favors corporate credit risk on the short-end of the market again because of the duration risk of holdings bonds in such a low-rate environment.
He also favors so-called unconstrained bond funds that can invest anywhere and change strategies quickly based on changing circumstances. "We like them heading into an election year," said Cohn. "We think volatility could pick up with comments from a candidate like Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders."
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