Wall Street's most pessimistic bank sees almost 5% fed-funds rate on horizon

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After becoming the first major Wall Street bank to call a U.S. recession in April, Deutsche Bank came out with yet another eye-opening view just days before the Federal Reserve’s next meeting.

As financial market gloom continued to deepen on Friday, Deutsche Bank, Wall Street’s most pessimistic bank, came out with yet another eye-opening view: Its U.S. economists, led by Matt Luzzetti, now expect the Federal Reserve to end its rate-hike campaign at 4.9% in 2023’s first quarter.“way beyond” what the market is pricing, comes just days ahead of the Fed’s next meeting on Sept.

Meanwhile, one key market rate — the one-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD01Y, 3.988% — hovered near 4% on Friday, a development that some say could spill over into other rates and exacerbate worries throughout financial markets, in the U.S. and abroad. “For policy to be restrictive, real or inflation-adjusted rates need to be positive and, right now, Fed officials can’t rely on forecasts about inflation to decline over time,” he told MarketWatch. “For them to have confidence, they need to get the fed-funds rate above inflation, at least by early next year,” he said, although Deutsche Bank doesn’t expect an almost 5% fed-funds rate to be sustained for very long.

Friday brought another downbeat day in financial markets, with all three major stock indexes DJIA, -0.45% SPX, -0.72% COMP, -0.90% finishing lower after trimming earlier heavy losses. FedEx’s profit warning was being read by some, such as BNP Paribas Chief U.S. Economist Carl Riccadonna, as fitting into his view that a “massive deceleration” is under way for the U.S. economy.

 

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