Wall Street’s ‘fear gauge’ still not signaling stock-market bottom is near, analysts say

Stock-market investors have been on a roller-coaster ride, but a closely watched measure of expected volatility has yet to convincingly signal that the selloff is set to bottom out, analysts said Monday.

The VIX’s close on Friday at 30.2 left it in a “no-man’s land” between 28 and 36, marking 1- and 2-standard deviations from the long-run mean, he wrote. The VIX did get to 35 in early action as stocks swooned early Friday, likely pulling in algorithmic traders and allowing the market to come back modestly over the course of the day, he said.

Stocks saw violent swings last week, soaring on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve delivered a widely expected rate increase of 50 basis points, only to give it all back and then some on Thursday as the Dow dropped more than 1,000 points. Major indexes posted weekly declines on Friday, with the S&P 500 finishing at its lowest since May 19, 2021, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -1.58% posted its lowest close since March and the Nasdaq Composite COMP, -3.

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