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It looks like there will be no doubling of the 10% tariffs on the $200 billion worth of goods hit by the Trump administration in September. There is now a new trade truce that some say is good for another 60 days. New loans fell to 886 billion renminbi in February, falling below market expectations of 950 billion RMB. The major caveat to those numbers is that the decline follows a record high credit dump of 3.2 trillion RMB in January.
Nomura economist Ting Lu in Hong Kong says he expects credit to rebound in March and April, but says Xi Jinping does not have the appetite to keep at it. Their room for policy easing is becoming increasingly constrained. Negative demand shocks due to domestic and external factors are also a headwind. Chinese banks seem to have low numbers of nonperforming loans on their books, so past credit splurges have not made for toxic debt loads, apparently.
Of the new corporate loans, new medium-to-long-term loans fell to 513 billion RMB from 1.4 trillion RMB the prior month. Those are down from the 2017-2018 average for February of 630 billion RMB. These numbers suggest that there were a few big budget items that increased loan totals. While mortgage debt is below normal for February, consumer debt on the month was flat. The big credit stimulus may be as big as it gets for China. It’s not going to look like 2014 and 2009.
Source: Real Estate Daily Report (realestatedailyreport.net)
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