Voters are last brake on Turkey’s lunatic express

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan addresses his supporters during the Grand Congress of his ruling AK Party in Ankara, Turkey, March 24, 2021. REUTERS/Umit BektasLONDON, Nov 19 - The global struggle against rising prices has nothing on Turkey. Despite inflation of almost 20%, the central bankto 15% on Thursday, the day after President Tayyip Erdogan, nicknamed The Chief, pledged to pursue this unorthodox campaign against high borrowing costs “to the end”.

Goldman Sachs reckons Ankara will be forced into a U-turn before April because of the vicious inflationary circle created by a weakening currency and real negative interest rate of almost 5%. But history suggests any reversal would be temporary while Erdogan remains in charge.Since Turkey’s last major currency crisis in 2018, which forced the central bank into a sharp emergency hike, Erdogan is encumbered by fewer checks on his authority.

The election date gives Erdogan a nationalist trump card – 2023 is the centenary of the founding of the Turkish republic. Against that is economic gravity. Since the attempted putsch, the average Turk’s spending power has dropped by three-quarters. Including currency swaps, which it used to prop up reserves, the central bank has negative foreign currency holdings, and may have to keep the state energy company supplied with dollars this winter to keep paying for gas imports.

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