Virginia race seen as litmus test for 2024 election

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Justin Boggs is a writer for the E.W. Scripps company. Justin covers anything from politics to sports and entertainment.

After decades of Republican dominance in Virginia politics, the last few election cycles have created a relatively even playing field for Democrats and Republicans.

Currently, Democrats hold a 22-18 advantage in the Virginia Senate. Meanwhile, Republicans have a 48-46 advantage in the House of Delegates. According to the Sabato Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, if voters don't switch parties from the 2021 gubernatorial election, it would create a 20/20 split in the state's Senate. In that scenario, Republicans would hold the Senate with Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears holding the tie-breaking vote.

According to Dave's Redistricting, 13 Senate districts favor a generic Republican versus 20 that favor Democrats. That would mean the seven remaining toss-up districts would have to be won by the GOP. One thing that could benefit Republicans is the popularity of Youngkin. According to a recent survey from Christopher Newport University, 55% of voters approve of Youngkin. William and Mary University government professor John McGlennon said in a press release that Youngkin has helped Republicans regain support in suburban regions of Virginia.

 

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