US officials concede errors on 'will to fight' in Afghanistan and Ukraine

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The U.S. intelligence community overestimated the capabilities of both the Afghan and Russian militaries, and the director of national intelligence pointed to the difficulties of assessing people’s 'will to fight' as one of the main factors.

The United States expected the Afghan army to withstand the Taliban for months, and officials expected the Russian military to conquer the capital of Ukraine in a matter of days. Both turned out to be significant overestimations of the respective militaries' performances on the battlefield.

Berrier, who struck a more defensive tone, attempted to explain that officials had not wrongly predicted the militaries' will to fight but rather their capability to fight. He and Sen. Angus King , who asked a question about the inaccurate intelligence analysis, said the “assessment was Ukraine would be overrun in a matter of weeks that was grossly wrong,” while Berrier reiterated that it was “not a question of will to fight, it was capacity at that time.”

“General, how can you possibly say that when we were told explicitly Kyiv would fall in three days and Ukraine would fall in two weeks?” King responded, cutting off the general. “You’re telling me that was accurate intelligence?”

 

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