The core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index is set to rise 0.3% MoM and 2.8% YoY in February. Markets see a strong chance of the Federal Reserve lowering the policy rate by 25 basis points in June. The revised Summary of Projections showed that policymakers upwardly revised end-2024 core PCE forecast to 2.6% from 2.4%.
Even if the monthly core PCE Price Index rises at a stronger pace than expected, it might not be enough to cause investors to reassess the possibility of another policy hold in June. Nevertheless, it could still provide a boost to the USD, with markets doubting the size of the total reduction in the policy rate. On the other hand, an increase of 0.2% or less in the monthly Core PCE Price Index could weigh on the USD.
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