The election is particularly hard to predict, for two reasons. First, Britain’s electoral landscape has changed markedly. The country has become polarised into Leave and Remain camps. At the same time, the old two-party system has fragmented into more of a four-party configuration; in addition to the Conservatives and Labour, the strongly pro-Remain Liberal Democrats and the avidly pro-Leave Brexit Party both poll in double figures. Moreover, Scottish and Welsh nationalists have drawn support.
A second factor is that, under Britain’s first-past-the-post electoral system, in which seats are allocated to candidates who win a plurality of votes in their constituencies, voters are increasingly likely to vote tactically—switching parties to maximise support for the strongest Leave or Remain candidates.
Our general-election tracker aggregates data from half a dozen polling firms to give a sense of where national sentiment lies, but does not predict the distribution of seats*. It should be read with caution.Since thereferendum in June 2016 Britain has become a country that votes increasingly by age. Jeremy Corbyn, the avowedly socialist Labour leader, enjoyed a cult-like status among many young people going into the 2017 election.
The Conservatives hope to gain seats in Labour’s pro-Brexit northern heartlands and Labour will want to make gains in pro-is expected to wrestle more votes from the other parties in Scotland and add to their tally of 35 seats out of a possible 59.The Economist’s poll-of-polls aggregates data from several firms using a statistical method called a generalised additive mixed model with smoothing.
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