UK economy to return to pre-COVID-19 level around mid-2022: Reuters poll

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Britain's economy will be back to its pre-COVID-19 level around the middle of next year, according to economists in a Reuters poll who said unemployment would peak at 6.2% as 2021 draws to a close and the pandemic job support scheme ends.

LONDON - Britain’s economy will be back to its pre-COVID-19 level around the middle of next year, according to economists in a Reuters poll who said unemployment would peak at 6.2% as 2021 draws to a close and the pandemic job support scheme ends.

Last year the economy shrank by the most in more than three centuries, but the April 7-12 poll of around 70 economists said it would expand 5.0% this year and 5.5% in 2022. In a March poll those forecasts were 4.6% and 5.7%, respectively. “We are sticking to our relatively optimistic view that the reopening of the economy and the vaccine programme will allow GDP to regain its pre-pandemic level early next year.”

Finance Minister Rishi Sunak said last month he expected the economy would return to its pre-pandemic size in mid-2022. Six respondents in the poll said it would take longer and five said it would be sooner.Britain’s job market has been protected by a huge government furlough scheme which is due to run until end-September, keeping unemployment levels relatively low. It was 5.0% in the three months to January.

None of the 60 economists polled expected Bank Rate to move from 0.1% when the Monetary Policy Committee meets on May 6 and medians in the survey suggest it won’t increase until 2023. The earliest anyone had a hike pencilled in was for Q3 next year.

 

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