First quarter growth was massive The UK economy powered out of its technical recession in the first quarter, judging by the initial GDP figures released today. The economy expanded by a whopping 0.6% quarter-on-quarter. Admittedly the data underlying that number has been pretty volatile. Some of that bounce – and the 0.3% contraction that came before it in the fourth quarter – is linked to a suspiciously large fall in retail activity at the end of last year which was fully recouped in January.
Second quarter growth should be strong too Volatility aside, there are genuine reasons to think the economy should continue growing more strongly. Real wage growth is positive, and is likely to becomeeven more so as the year goes on. Headline inflation is likely to be below the 2% target from May onwards, with nominal wage growth at 6% and falling more slowly.
Source: Financial Digest (financialdigest.net)
Unitedkingdom Macroeconomics Centralbanks
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