UFC 299: Expert picks and best bets for O'Malley vs. Vera 2

"Suga" Sean O'Malley puts his UFC bantamweight title on the line when he takes on Marlon"Chito" Vera in the main event of UFC 299 on Saturday night. O'Malley has bounced back well since losing to Vera in 2020. The champ has beaten all but two of his six opponents during that time by knockout, including a second-round TKO win overVera has won five of his past six bouts.

Vera pushes the pace, but he doesn't really push the pace in terms of volume. He pushes the pace in terms of range. People want to fight at their range, where they're comfortable, and Vera is OK smothering that range a little bit, and he suffocates people. They're uncomfortable when people are in a more traditional boxing than a kickboxing range, and they punch when they don't want to.

Vera's leg kicks, which set up his finish over O'Malley in the first fight, are a wild card here. If O'Malley gets too much hype as the betting favorite, there could be some value in Vera's violence as a prop. Otherwise, I agree with the market that O'Malley should fight smarter than he did last time, and use his range to force Vera to fight uphill.In their first meeting, Vera won by TKO after O'Malley suffered an injury from a leg kick early in the fight.

This card is so loaded that it has two heavyweights who consistently hold main event status fighting on the prelims. It's also odd to have two heavyweights primarily known for their wrestling. Both Almeida and Blaydes have perfect ground control metrics. If not for Almeida, Blaydes would have the highest share of total fight time in ground control at 42%. But Almeida has spent 87% of his fight time in ground control, the highest I've seen by an established fighter.

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