By Missy Ryan, John Hudson, Michael Birnbaum, Dan Lamothe, The Washington PostSnowflakes cover the photograph of a fallen Ukrainian serviceman , in downtown Kyiv, Ukraine, Tuesday, March 12, 2024.
Hoping to maintain the public focus on Congress, administration officials have refused to openly address any alternate realities for Ukraine. But in private, they are fast coming to terms with the prospect that Washington’s political dysfunction may prevail, either by tanking the aid package or passing it too late to avoid disaster for the government in Kyiv.
Russia, meanwhile, on top of its huge manpower advantage, is flooding Ukraine with drones and is on pace to manufacture 2.7 million shells, according to Olha Stefanishyna, Ukraine’s deputy prime minister for European and Euro-Atlantic integration, far outstripping near-term U.S. production. Speaking last week in Washington, she said that “every day of indecisiveness” in the West will result in greater loss of life and diminish her country’s military outlook.
Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said the lack of adequate manpower, particularly infantry troops, and the need for stronger fortifications would be crucial in determining Ukraine’s trajectory.“If the supplemental passes but Ukraine does not address its manpower issues, then it will certainly buy time, but the structural problem remains,” Kofman said.
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