female president, Tsai Ing-wen is a trailblazer. She is well-liked abroad for her reluctance to pick fights with China. But she is not popular at home. Recent polls put her approval rating below 30%. Her bid for re-election next year, already iffy, just got iffier. Lai Ching-te, her former prime minister, has declared that he will challenge Ms Tsai for the presidential nomination of the Democratic Progressive Party .
“Taiwan doesn’t want to be a second Hong Kong or Tibet,” declared Mr Lai as he registered for the primary this week, insinuating that Ms Tsai is not doing enough to ensure Taiwan’s independence. Thewas thrashed in municipal elections in November by the Kuomintang , the main opposition party, which advocates warmer relations with China. Voters seemed disappointed that Ms Tsai’s efforts to stimulate the economy have had scant success. Growth is slowing. Wages have been stagnant for decades.
Ms Tsai’s supporters, meanwhile, are arguing that the primary could split the party and are making agonised calls for unity, by which they seem to mean Mr Lai’s withdrawal. Chen Chi-mai, the deputy prime minister and a supporter of Ms Tsai, argued in a Facebook post that China’s growing assertiveness makes divisions within the party especially dangerous. “The 2020 election will determine whether Taiwan survives or is extinguished,” he said.
Inevitably, China will be front and centre in the campaign. The authorities across the Taiwan Strait probably revile Mr Lai even more than they do Ms Tsai. That might encourage them to ease the pressure on Taiwan a bit over the next few months. The Chinese government knows from experience that attempts to intimidate Taiwanese voters tend to backfire, prompting them to back the candidate most hostile to its cherished goal of reunification.
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