Trump Victory Could Add 4 Billion Tonnes to US Emissions by 2030, Analysis Finds

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The additional emissions would be equivalent to the combined annual emissions of the European Union and Japan.

Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump takes the stage to speak at a Super Tuesday election night party on March 5, 2024, at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida.A victory for Donald Trump in November’s presidential election could lead to an additional 4bn tonnes of U.S. emissions by 2030 compared with Joe Biden’s plans,This extra 4bn tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent by 2030 would cause global climate damages worth more than $900bn, based on the latest U.S.

Regardless of the precise impact, a second Trump term that successfully dismantles Biden’s climate legacy would likely end any global hopes of keeping global warming below 1.5C.under the Paris Agreement to accelerate that trend by cutting U.S. emissions to 50-52% below 2005 levels in 2030 and to net-zero in 2050.In the “Biden” scenario in the figure below , all federal climate policies currently in place or in the process of being finalised are assumed to continue.

Second, despite this policy gap, Biden’s current climate policies go a significant way towards meeting the 2030 target and could be In addition, higher U.S. fossil fuel production would not all be consumed domestically and would not increase global demand on a one-for-one basis.If Biden — or another Democrat — wins the election in November and if his party regains control over the House and Senate, then they could push to implement new climate policies in 2025.


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