Fiona’s circulation will cross the Leeward Islands, probably near Guadeloupe, during the late afternoon hours on Friday. Remember though — since the storm is lopsided, the bulk of the wind and entirety of the rainfall will hold off until after the low-level center passes. That means it probably won’t start raining until overnight Friday into Saturday. The heaviest rains, which could total 3 to 6 inches, will last only 18 to 24 hours, but some showers should linger into early next week; the U.S.
The heaviest rains are projected in the eastern Dominican Republic, where 6 to 10 inches are possible, and even up to 16 inches in the mountains, where flash flooding and mudslides will become a threat.As Fiona scrapes along the south side of Puerto Rico, its strength will determine how quickly it turns. At the low and mid-levels of the atmosphere, winds are out of the east — pushing Fiona west. At the upper levels, winds are southerly.
The tricky thing about Fiona is that subtleties in the storm’s trajectory will have enormous bearings on next steps. If Fiona waits to begin a northward curve, which is likely, it could encounter Hispaniola, a jagged land mass which would probably shred the storm’s inner circulation. That could prompt a messy reorganization and an almost impossible forecast.
Alternatively, Fiona could escape northward sooner into the southeast Bahamas. From there, its path would hinge on the strength of an Atlantic ridge of high pressure, which will act as a force field to suppress Fiona westward. A stronger ridge would shunt it closer to the East Coast, but a weaker high would allow it to meander out to sea.
At present, there are too many overlapping uncertainties to hatch a forecast with adequate confidence. As such, it’s temporarily a game of wait and see — but it’s too early to let one’s guard down.
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