On this track, Nicole will intercept the Florida coastline somewhere between Brevard and Palm Beach Counties overnight Wednesday into Thursday. Guidance is in good agreement that Nicole’s track will bend northwest and then north post-landfall, curling through the Big Bend or north Central Florida Thursday evening. This motion is a little faster than yesterday’s forecast, and inclement weather should clear Florida by noon Friday.
However, every hurricane is unhappy in its own way, and Nicole’s size and strength will result in broad impacts from all four hurricane hazards — surge, wind, rain, and tornadoes. However, a 2-4 foot surge is possible in the Nature Coast if a strong onshore flow occurs. Mostly offshore or along-shore flow are likely in Apalachee Bay, but keep an eye on the forecast.Nicole’s developing more intense core notwithstanding, tropical storm-force winds continue to cover a hefty chunk of the southwest Atlantic, extending over 350 miles northwest and 275 miles northeast of Nicole’s center.
The heaviest rainfall totals of 3-6 inches with local maxima of 8 inches are expected across the eastern half of the peninsula, where the highest risks of urban flooding and river flooding issues reside. A general 2-4 inches is expected for west central and north-central Florida.
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