Treasury Expects to Borrow $1.3 Trillion Over Second Half of Fiscal 2021

WASHINGTON—The U.S. plans to borrow nearly $1.3 trillion over the coming quarters as federal spending picks up following the Covid relief package enacted in March, the Treasury Department said Monday.

The Treasury estimated the government would borrow $463 billion from April through June, compared with the $95 billion it estimated in February before Congress passed the $1.9 trillion relief bill. That is just a fraction of what the government borrowed during the same period last year at the height of the pandemic, when emergency spending and weak tax revenues sent deficits soaring, and drove total borrowing to $2.7 trillion.

Congress approved another burst of federal spending this year that economists expect will drive the economic recovery through the end of 2021, including $1,400 stimulus checks for most Americans, funding for small businesses, aid for state and local governments and enhanced jobless benefits. The Treasury also estimated net marketable borrowing would total $821 billion from July through September, assuming Congress agrees to suspend the federal borrowing limit after the current suspension expires on Aug. 1.

The agency also lifted its forecasts for the government’s cash balance, which is expected to total $800 billion by the end of June, based on the government’s projected outflows at the time, and $750 billion by the end of September.

I will happily cut them a check for $10K each week for the rest of the year and any year following if they would lower the discount rate on the 28 day Treasury so that we can earn an effective 1% once redeemed (a 12% annualized risk free rate of return).

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