Thunder vs Mavs Prediction, Picks, Odds for Tonight’s NBA Playoff Game

The Mavs may have gotten the best of the Thunder in Game 2, but our NBA picks think some unsustainable factors got them there, and see different things in store for Game 3.

Keep in mind that the Mavs went 18-for-37 from deep in that contest but entered that game with a middling 36.7 3PT%, and the Thunder are typically much better at defending threes. OKC had several defensive lapses in that game, which was surprising for a team that finished the regular fourth in the NBA in defensive rating and has been the highest-rated defensive team in the playoffs.

Oklahoma City is weak on the boards, sitting 28th in the league in rebound rate, but the Mavs were just two spots above them, so they aren't strong enough inside to take advantage of that flaw. Defense tends to win games in the playoffs, and I'll back the far better defensive squad to bounce back with a win at plus money here. had a career performance in Game 2, scoring 29 points and going 7-for-11 from beyond the arc.

Despite having one of the highest usage rates in the NBA, Gilgeous-Alexander does a great job of taking care of the ball and Dallas doesn't force many turnovers. SGA has posted fewer than 2.5 turnovers in 21 of 31 games since the All-Star break, and he has also gone below this number in five of six contests against the Mavs this season.There hasn't been much movement on the spread, but the total has ticked down from 219 to 218.Since March 6, the Mavericks have gone 21-7 SU and ATS.

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