This big Wall Street bear warns his bleak scenario for 2019 is taking shape

Last week, tariffs on Mexico increased the chances that the Federal Reserve would cut rates. Investors obviously like that. So, stocks rallied. This week, Trump backs off those same tariffs. Investors apparently like that, too. Stocks again are rallying.“The market wanted to go up. I don’t think it mattered what happened. We just use these things as a reason after the fact to look smart,” the CEO of the New York City-based investment advisory firm wrote. “That’s how it works.

“This raises the risk of my core view playing out — that companies will do whatever it takes to protect margins,” Wilson wrote. “And while labor is the last lever they pull, they will use it if they need to.” “If you listen to what the markets have really been saying this year, they seem to agree with our view that growth will disappoint whether there is a trade deal or not,” he said. “Therefore, we continue to recommend investors stay defensively positioned... with overweights in areas like utilities and consumer staples.”

The chart Put the stock market on the back burner and focus on refinancing that mortgage. As our chart of the day from Black Knight shows, almost 7 million people are now eligible to save at least 75 basis points, that’s a million more than a week earlier.The buzz Where does Microsoft MSFT, +2.80% go from here? The software giant just surged into record territory and is now valued at more than $1 trillion. Amazon AMZN, +2.83% and Apple AAPL, +2.

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