The Verde Report: Behind the Numbers of Austin FC’s Latest Hot Streak

All of a sudden, Austin FC is one of the hottest teams in Major League Soccer. After a 1-0 victory over the weekend against the, the Verde and Black have now taken nine points out of their last four games, one of just five MLS clubs to do so.said after Saturday’s win. “We keep improving. We don’t worry about the noise and stuff outside. We know who we are, we know how much we need to put into each game and how precise we have to be with our execution.

Precision has been, statistically, one of the club’s biggest strengths so far this season. El Tree has scored a total of 12 goals through nine matches, smack in the median among MLS clubs. However, Austin’s expected goal total – a statistic that predicts how many goals a club is likely to have scored, based on the quantity and location of shots taken – is a very pedestrian 7.9, according toBut here’s the big difference. While Dallas’ 7.

That’s the glass-half-full way of thinking, at least. And Austin FC does have a history of this. Back in 2022, while the club was making its improbable run to the Western Conference’s No. 2 seed and a conference finals appearance, ATXFC led MLS with 13.1 goals above its expected figure. , noticed when he declared that Austin FC “overachieved” in 2022. Generally speaking, that kind of efficiency is not sustainable.

And it’s not just on the offensive side where Austin FC has had good fortune this season. The club has conceded 13 goals despite a total expected-goals-against figure of 16.9. That difference of 3.9 is the second-best figure in the league. OnlyThere’s certainly truth to the old adage, “It’s better to be lucky than good.” But that logic is best applied on the micro scale. Individual matches. Individual shots.

We’ll likely learn a lot over the next two match days, as Austin FC takes on the top two teams in the Western Conference. First up is the top-rankedYou wouldn’t necessarily expect wins from either of those matches. Then again, Austin FC doesn’t seem to matter much about what’s expected.has been Austin’s independent news source for over 40 years, expressing the community’s political and environmental concerns and supporting its active cultural scene.

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