Some measures are designed to measure momentum, while others are designed to look at the level. For example, the ISM manufacturing PMI measures momentum, asking factory purchasing managers about growth relative to the previous month. By contrast, the unemployment rate would be an indicator used to measure the level of economic activity.
The worst period for the markets is when the opposite is true – the economy is at a high level and the momentum begins to turn south. That usually signals the economy is at its peak and may slump towards f a. What happens in between is largely random, where investors can expect average returns. Do people stop investing the first year after a recession?
For example, during economic booms in the 1990s and 2010s, the ISM had several dips below 50 that lasted longer than three months. In the miserable economy of the mid-70s, the ISM manufacturing PMI stayed above 50 well into recession. For those overachievers, I go into a more detailed discussion on the ISMLately, the"peak data" chatter is conjuring up memories of 2010, when fears over the outlook swelled soon after the recession ended despite the economy having plenty of room to grow.
Second, the consensus now versus then is quite different. A persistent feature during the period following the financial crisis was that the consensus was too optimistic on growth. For years, the consensus took a"wait till next year" approach to the economy. Growth may have been weak but the consensus always seemed to believe 3% GDP growth was just around the corner. This period feels different.
RenMacLLC We are expecting a Big Boom in US market.
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