Investors are keeping a wary eye on oil after weekend attacks on Saudi Arabia crude facilities triggered the largest one-day gain for the commodity since 2008, and plenty of risk-off action all over.
“We are cautious on stocks. We would argue you want to be defensively positioned [and] we would argue that the U.S. equity market has run way, way ahead of growth,” says Chadha. “Every time payrolls growth has gone below 1%, the U.S. has ended up in recession. We would argue the U.S. economy is dangerously close to...tipping into recession,” he said, adding that the fate of the economy hinges on one thing - the trade war.“I would argue that’s a necessary condition for growth to bottom and rebound and or the stock market to go up in a sustainable way,” he says.
European stocks SXXP, -0.20% are struggling, while Asia markets ADOW, -0.64% got hit by Saudi-related tensions.The economy Industrial production and capacity utilization data, followed by a home builders’ index, are on tap, along with the start of the Fed’s two-day meeting . Here’s a one-month eurodollar chart US:EDU19 and our chart the day. The higher those futures rise, the lower the implied Fed rate and it’s been going down -- suggesting there are at least a few bets the central bank could surprise Wednesday:
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