The Russian case for Crimea

"Legally, everything was done absolutely correctly," Ignatov said of the Khrushchev-era transfer of control. But, he added, among Russians"it was always considered as land which was not stolen but given to Ukraine without the support or approval of society."

Russian influence in Crimea was, even then, arguably the strongest in all of Ukraine."It's not a myth that it has a pro-Russian population," Ignatov said."There are a lot of people there who are from Russia, who moved there from Russia, who are military, or their family members. It's a very big community."Pro-Moscow sentiment can at least partially explain the divergence of Crimean voters from broad trends among their compatriots.

This might be exacerbated if and when fighting there starts."They will have to strike targets in Crimea," Voyger said of any Ukrainian ground operations on the peninsula."Unfortunately, I would imagine, there may be also collateral damage." "They allowed themselves to turn into Russian instruments of occupation and artificial change of demographic situation in Crimea. That is why they cannot have the same legal status as Ukrainian citizens or residents who legally stay in the territory of Ukraine."

"If you have to attack it, if you have to take it by force through that isthmus, the narrow bottleneck, it will probably be complicated if the defenses have been properly established," Voyger said. Ukrainian leaders have been clear in their intention to seize back the peninsula, framing it as vital for the country's future security. Few in Ukraine believe any concessions—territorial or otherwise—would actually mark the end of the fighting.

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