Kennedy’s numbers have a much wider range. The longtime activist and son of the former attorney general, senator, and 1968 Democratic presidential candidate ranges from a high of 15% nationally in a recent Harvard-Harris poll to 2% in anPerot received 19% of the vote in 1992 and followed up with 8% in 1996, then as the nominee of the Reform Party.The Harvard-Harris poll looks somewhat like the 1992 final results, with the Democrat and Republican reversed — but not the incumbent and challenger.
There are also questions about the debates. When Perot appeared on the debate stage alongside Clinton and Bush, he won nearly a fifth of the national vote. When he was excluded from the debates four years later, he dropped to below 10%. The only other time a third-party candidate debated a major-party nominee was when John Anderson took on Ronald Reagan in 1980. President Jimmy Carter, the incumbent, sat it out and debated Reagan one-on-one.
Nader’s impact was strongest in Florida, where he failed to crack 2% of the vote. But the consumer advocate’s 97,488 easily exceeded the 537 votes by which Bush won the state, securing the Electoral College majority and the presidency. It’s not entirely evident which major-party nominee stands to lose the most from Kennedy in 2024. At the moment, it appears to be Biden. Trump does slightly better in polls including Kennedy and other third-party candidates.
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