The real COVID surge is (much) bigger than it looks. But don't panic

People walk past a Covid testing site on May 17. in New York City. New York's health commissioner, Dr. Ashwin Vasan, has moved from a"medium" COVID-19 alert level to a"high" alert level in all the five boroughs following a surge in cases.

Yet in most places, health officials haven't called for any new COVID restrictions. So how big is the surge, really? And is there anything you should be doing about it?Official undercounts of cases are not exactly a new problem. At the beginning of the pandemic, many cases went undetected because tests were unreliable and supply was limited.

for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. As the pandemic progressed, that method didn't work as well, Shaman explains, because antibodies after infection waned over time and because vaccinations complicated the antibody picture. Take that estimate with a giant grain of salt, he advises. It's getting harder to get a firm handle on the current ascertainment rate.Ellume COVID-19 home tests are seen at a CVS in the Navy Yard neighborhood of Washington, D.C., where senior citizens received free tests that are covered by Medicare on Monday, April 4.

As the weather warms up and people spend more time outdoors,"transmission is a lot less because of the ventilation outside," she says. Also, after the massive surge of infections from the omicron variant, she says,"we just have such high levels of infection-induced immunity that we have a very high immunity wall," something

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