Experts say the coronavirus pandemic is likely to unfold in three stages. The first is the current effort to limit the impact of the initial outbreak through social distancing and an aggressive public health response. The final stage will come when the bulk of the population attains immunity to the virus, either from a vaccine or through developing antibodies after becoming infected, or more likely some combination of the two.
How we manage this tension until immunity is a reality will make a major difference in the amount of suffering that happens along our path out of the pandemic. Failure to properly navigate the response could mean unnecessary levels of death and economic pain in the months ahead. There’s broad agreement that waiting for a vaccine is the only reasonable path to immunity, since the alternative of allowing that to happen naturally could mean millions of deaths.
Another critical step will be identifying and isolating people who have the virus to limit the size of new outbreaks. Most plans call for a significant increase in the availability of testing to accomplish this. A technology called contract tracing, which uses cellphone location data to track people who came into contact with an infected person, could help catch cases early, though privacy concerns may limit how widely it’s adopted.
Article mentions Millions of deaths without vaccine, how do we know that? The original model of 200k death with isolation (best case) was way off and more has come out that the actual number of cases may be way higher which = lower morbidity %
Summer will sum it all.
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