The other terminal rate: How far will policy rates be cut?

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Recent communication by the Federal Reserve and the ECB has made it clear that the first cut in official interest rates is coming.

Both central banks are saying the same -it depends on the data- but the ECB communication is more opaque than that of the Federal Reserve, which provides interest rate projections of the FOMC members . In assessing how fast and how much the ECB might cut policy rates in this cycle, several approaches can be adopted. Based on the credibility of the ECB and plausible estimates of the neutral rate, it makes sense to use an assumption of a range between 2.00% and 2.

At the current juncture, the more relevant question in the Eurozone is how fast and how much policy rates might be cut in this cycle under the hypothesis that key economic variables -inflation, growth, wages, etc.- would evolve in line with the latest ECB staff projections. Several approaches could be adopted . The first consists of looking at the consensus forecast. The latest ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts sees the deposit rate, which is currently at 4.00%, dropping to 3.

 

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