The Middle East’s Future of Perpetual Pandemics

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As outbreaks like coronavirus shift from “black swan” events to regular occurrences, globalization may reverse. It won’t be pretty

Even after acknowledging later that he had tested positive for the virus, the health minister minimized the extent of the emergency, insisting that a widely publicized death toll of 50 people in the city of Qom was inflated and that there was no need for a quarantine.Undervaluing the impact of pandemics is not limited to Iranian government officials. It’s actually a widespread phenomenon among Middle East experts who tend to focus more on war and terrorism risks when doing their forecasts.

In addition to being tightly connected to so many places, at the literal center of global aviation, energy and shipping hubs, the Middle East is weakened by wars, corruption, failing health services and deceptive regimes that may try to cover up the extent of future pandemics, as the Iranian government isare particularly vulnerable. Refugees and other migrants flowing undetected to Europe are further risk factors for the spread of pandemics via the Middle East.

More often, I was shocked by how open and welcoming the “haves” were to the “have-nots” from less fortunate communities “infected” by war. Tight social connections, a generally merciful outlook and loosely controlledA common ode to globalization is that we live in a world that is getting smaller all the time, meaning that travel and the ordering of goods is easier, faster and cheaper.

One upside for Middle Easterners, after a harsh period of adjustment, might be the localization of their economies. This development may be coming in any case, with the maturation of 3D printing, additive manufacturing and nanotechnology making it less necessary to ship items from long distances away. Pandemic-driven contraction could accelerate this trend.

In a pandemic-ridden future, nation states might become stronger, because they clearly define who can come and who must go based on nationality, and because they have potentially well-policed borders. But states will gain in legitimacy only if they prove effective when tested by pandemics and other threats.

 

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1st case of non contact coronavirus reported in California. This patient has not traveled or had contact with anyone infected. This is a self sustaining virus people. The CDC is warning folks to get prepared. The administration is down playing the risks for political purposes

Well, much of the articles, etc. that I've read about globalization tend to suggest that eventually, it will lead to a much smaller world population being maintained. If that were true than the idea presented here is moot.

Hysteria.

Globalism is a disease which is MUCH WORSE than the CoronaVirus ... the short sighted Globalist who buy the politicians have corrupted our Constitutional Republic & endanger the freedoms which ONLY a STRONG America have afforded the world

I dont have a PHD in economics but I would imagine if there are supply chain issues the only way to help would be to lift all tariffs and quotas except on industries essential to national defense

How many die every yr from the flu? Don't hear you crying about that! fakenews

This is silly. We’ve had pandemics long before globalization. We can’t uninvent jet travel. We can’t change the fact that world population is 8 billion going on 10. Get better at stoping epidemics is the only way forward

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