The Long-Term Economic Costs of Lost Schooling

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Essay: Students who are falling behind because of Covid restrictions may never catch up in their skills, job prospects and income

He came to this conclusion in part by examining the experience of German students. In 1966 and 1967, the German government temporarily shortened the school year in a rejiggering of the school calendar. Longitudinal studies, he says, show that this lost class time reduced the incomes of that cohort of students by 5% over their lifetimes. Today’s students “are going to feel the long-term effects of Covid even when they are back in school,” Mr. Hanushek says.

For many years, economists have looked for evidence of hysteresis in labor markets. In Europe in the 1970s and 1980s, economists Olivier Blanchard and Lawrence Summers noticed that unemployment tended to increase during economic downturns, as expected, but didn’t fully return to previous levels when the economy revived. The rubber band, in other words, didn’t regain its shape.

Mr. Blanchard and other economists worried about the lasting damage to people who sat on the sidelines of the job market and saw their skills deteriorate. Some stopped looking for work; others found income on federal disability rolls. As the expansion marched on, however, some were drawn back into the labor market. Mr. Blanchard, to his surprise, found evidence of hysteresis less compelling than he had expected.

 

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No, they won’t. Some of them learnt more during Lockdown as they have more time to study and solve problems on their own. I don’t think any child is solely dependent on just teacher or teaching in schools!

Difficult to believe, since many have succeeded in spite of poor early educations. A year of disruption shouldn't be daming. Everyone repeat a year?

This is nonsense and a publicity grab. Children are more resilient than anyone. No fractions this year? Then do them the next year. Maybe some of these kids will be allowed a 13th year-something Canada and Europe do well. Be more concerned about wellness than money.

'May'. Not will. Might. Could. Possibly. You think. Definitely speculation. Yet you're using wsj just to flush more opinion bullshit down the collective drain. Tell me again how you manipulative and ignorant clowns at wsj have any credibility at all?

Students can catch up! Don't condemn people to poverty for the rest of their lives because of a one-year restriction!

Computerized Interactive teaching works, USE IT!!!!! New Century interactive software was used years ago in public schools so no excuses!!

I consider that this is failure. Other students won’t have a problem.

sfusd CTU

This reminds me of doctors grossly overestimating the time to recover from accidents\\surgery\\illness to the point of ridiculousness. Dial down the drama.

Not true. I have learned more from my classes online during COVID-19 then going in person classes.

yaiptalyaistifa Hi, I'm a high school student in Turkey. Unfortunately, although the number of cases in our country is high, our exams will take place face to face 2 million students cannot access distance education in our country. Please support us. Please

It's sad. My kids are luck theirs parents are educated and can help with the at home learning. I have a job that allows me to work from home. My kids aren't falling behind. There are lots of other kids that aren't as fortunate. We need to focus resources on them to help catch up.

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