In the last century, technology legitimized the latter approach, as developments in IT provided more powerful tools and systems for forecasting. In the 1940s, the analog computer MONIAC had to use actual tanks and pipes of colored water to model the UK economy. By the 1970s, the Club of Rome could turn to the World3 computer simulation to model the flow of energy through human and natural systems via key variables such as industrialization, environmental loss, and population growth.
This approach resonates in many ways with yet another forecasting method—war-gaming. Beginning in the 20th century, military field exercises and maneuvers were increasingly supplemented, and sometimes replaced, by simulation. Undertaken both by human beings and by computer models such as the RAND Strategy Assessment Center, this strategy is no longer confined to the military, but is now used extensively in politics, commerce, and industry.
More recently, research at MIT has focused on developing algorithms to predict the future based on the past, at least in the extremely short term. By teaching computers what has “usually” happened next in a given situation—will people hug or shake hands when they meet?—researchers are echoing this search for historical patterns. But, as is often a flaw in this approach to predictions, it leaves little room, at least at this stage of technological development, to expect the unexpected.
But if predictions based on past experience have limited capacity to anticipate the unforeseen, extrapolations from techno-scientific innovations have a distressing capacity to be deterministic. Ultimately, neither approach is necessarily more useful than the other, and that’s because they both share the same fatal flaw—the people framing them.of the forecaster, and however sophisticated their tools, the trouble with predictions is their proximity to power.
Source: Tech Daily Report (techdailyreport.net)
SweatEconomy - move2earn 💪 Rare_Fnd - charity & crowdfunding two 💎 with real world utility💯♥️
oh you mean things we have no inkling of? on the other hand, us housing bubble crash was really obvious. once pandemic started, it was obviously all over the world already. long covid going to be the worst part obvious from early on.
are you sure about this?
You ought to study those that could like Padre Pio (1887-1968) rather than dismiss the evidence because of the religious context. I worked two tears for him and he was a very sober, blunt man.
Knowing the future isn't helpful if it's inconvenient to the people in power. As Cassandra learned in the Trojan War. WWIII is now being fought over INCREASING fossil fuel use when we've known for 40 years fossil fuels have to go extinct for climate change.
QUOTE: 'There is an assumption that the more scientific the approach to predictions,the more accurate forecasts will be.But this belief causes more problems than it solves,not least because it often either ignores or excludes the lived diversity of human experience.Despite...'
Knowing the future or rather predicting about tomorrow will only depend on the previous precedence. Yesterday’s precedence are tomorrow’s forecast either it’s based in scientific community or traditional analysis.
The Future is the Today of Yesterday. It comes comes and go. Do what you can while you can and be Hopeful
A human being can be a very predictable animal.
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