The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation tracker shows cooling prices. Here's the impact on rates.

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Inflation News

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The better-than-expected PCE data is increasing expectations that the Fed could cut rates in September, analysts said.

An inflation measure closely tracked by the Federal Reserve slowed to its smallest annual increase in three years, prompting some Wall Street economists to forecast an increased likelihood that the central bank could cut rates in September. The personal consumption expenditures index, or PCE, rose 2.6% in May on a year-over-year basis, the U.S. Commerce Department said on Friday.

Currently, the odds for a rate cut at that meeting are approximately 75%,' wrote John Kerschner, head of U.S. securitised products at Janus Henderson Investors, in a Friday email. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, so-called core inflation rose 0.1% from April to May, the smallest increase since the spring of 2020, when the pandemic erupted and shut down the economy. Prices for physical goods actually fell 0.4% from April to May. Gasoline prices, for example, dropped 3.

 

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