The trading community is on edge as JP Morgan gets ready to kick off earnings season tomorrow. Analysts have been fretting that earnings have turned negative for the first quarter, now expected to be down 2.5% for the S&P 500, the first down quarter since the second quarter of 2016.
Overall, 25 companies have already reported first quarter results, according to Earnings Scout. 84% are beating expectations--higher than normal--and they are beating by a much wider margin than usual: 7.5 percentage points, much more than the typical 3.5 percentage point beat. If companies beat estimates by anything close to 7 percentage points, then earnings for the first quarter are likely to be up in the low single digits, not negative.As for JPMorgan, which is reporting tomorrow, the key issue will not be the dry facts, it will be the tone Dimon strikes about the global economy. Banks in general are continuing to see loan growth in the low single digits, flat interest income because rates are not moving up, and good credit quality.
"If they put up a decent number, and Jamie says, 'Hey, the economy is still chugging along,' it will go a long way toward quieting down the recession worries," Jeff Harte, bank analyst with Sandler O'Neill, told me.
Ya JD . Market needs u. If not bathblood tomorrow also Friday
With more lies?
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